Billionaire investor Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has released a new, reimagined, Bitcoin price target. They even anticipate the value to reach $2.4 million per coin in 2030. This bullish forecast, revealed on Thursday, significantly exceeds Ark Invest's previous estimates and factors in Bitcoin's active supply and network activity. The investment firm’s bullish take mirrors a hopeful sentiment sweeping across the larger tech ecosystem. Nothing like a little misplaced optimism to help spur the cryptocurrency bubble!
Ark Invest’s new price target implies a total upside of about 40% compared to its base case model. The base model fails to consider Bitcoin’s circulating supply and network vitality. This updated estimate further illustrates the firm’s positive view on Bitcoin’s future development prospects.
Updated Forecast Methodology
Ark Invest’s past market estimates have come as a part of their annual Big Ideas report. Based on these TAM and penetration rate assumptions, these reports predicted Bitcoin’s future value. The new report expands on this groundwork by including new, complementary metrics.
To account for Bitcoin’s active supply and network liveliness, the report includes adjustments for these elements. Taken together, these metrics paint a more detailed picture behind the surface narrative, revealing the true depth of Bitcoin’s usage and adoption. The new model implies a much stronger growth trajectory for the crypto asset.
"Bitcoin’s network liveliness has remained near ~60% since early 2018. In our view, that magnitude of liveliness suggests that ~40% of supply is ‘vaulted,’" - Ark Invest report
Industry Optimism
Ark Invest isn’t the only voice out there forecasting Bitcoin to go up by a factor of 30. Strategy Chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor has forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $13 million per coin over the next 21 years. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been similarly bullish, sending the value of Bitcoin to $1 million per coin.
These forecasts, in addition to Ark Invest’s new price target, are indicative of an increasing sentiment that Bitcoin has strong long-term fundamentals. Various industry experts are confident in Bitcoin's ability to disrupt traditional financial systems and serve as a store of value.
Key Assumptions
Ark Invest’s $2.4 million Bitcoin price target by 2030 assumes a number of things. These assumptions take into account Bitcoin’s active supply and network liveliness. These three combined factors provide a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s growth potential.
"On that basis, we arrive at the following price targets, which are roughly 40% higher than our base model, which does not account for Bitcoin active supply and network liveliness" - Ark Invest report
This new projection gives us a much deeper look into Bitcoin’s potential future trajectory.
