The crypto market is a beast. One minute you’re toasting those hard-won gains, the next you’re falling down the dark hole of doom red candles. Right now, we're seeing a recovery, a bounce, and everyone's asking the same question: is this the real deal, or a bull trap? The answer, as always in crypto, is it depends. This May, the usual seasonal warnings about selling everything might just be overshadowed by an unexpected force: Donald Trump.
Trumpnomics and Bitcoin's Unexpected Ally
Trumpnomics, let’s face it, is the big unknown. Wild cards can be profitable. The market’s taking their cue from positive signals – potential trade deals, a Trump white house with a hands-off approach to the Fed. This is good for sentiment, and sentiment powers risk-on assets such as bitcoin.
Think about it: Trump's presidency, whatever your political views, was marked by deregulation and a pro-business stance. Now, picture this instead— he champions policies to undermine the dollar’s value in order to lift exports. What’s the immediate reaction? People will seek alternative stores of value. The original, major digital safe haven, Bitcoin stands to gain tremendously.
Bitcoin is already playing the role of safe haven, up over American stocks at a time of increasing geopolitical and economic doubt. This is more than technical charts in and of themselves, this is about narrative. And Trump is a master of narrative. Pretty much the only person in the world that can change market sentiment single-handedly with a tweet.
FOMO or Fundamental Shift?
FOMO is corrosive. Nansen’s analysts are right to be concerned about it. We’ve all witnessed hype rallies that go nowhere – far too often they fizzle and flame out. This feels different. Altcoins such as TRUMP, SUI, WIF, and yes even FARTCOIN have popped thousands of percent over the past few weeks. Despite this, perhaps the most important aspect in the market is Bitcoin’s undeniable resilience. It’s holding above key support levels, printing out ascending channels – bull flag patterns, we would call them at TXP – textbook bullish signals.
South Korean CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju adopts a more sober approach. He cautions that if Bitcoin fails to break above $100,000, we might experience a bearish trend. This is a valid concern. What we want to see is sustained momentum—not a one-hit wonder.
Consider the macro picture: the M2 money supply is expanding, institutions are pouring money into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and even traditional finance giants like Cantor Fitzgerald and SoftBank are dipping their toes in. This is not your 2017 ICO bubble. That, my friends, is what we call institutional adoption, and it changes the game.
The $125,000 Question
Technical analysis suggests a retest of Bitcoin’s previous all-time high (ATH), with price targets up to $125,000. Is it guaranteed? Absolutely not. Crypto is volatile, and anything can happen. The technical infrastructure is holding up and is pretty exciting. On the positive side, good news on trade deals and cuts in interest rates would add to the strength and improve the outlook.
The “sell in May and go away” tactic is effective for old school stocks. Bitcoin plays by a different set of rules. This year, the Trump wildcard might just trump (pun intended) the seasonal trends. That’s a risky bet to make, but it’s a bet that could richly reward. Just be sure to fasten your seat belt and get ready for the journey.
- Ascending channel formation
- Retest of lower channel side
- Holding above $68,845 support
- Above 100-day moving average
- Expanding M2 money supply
- Institutional adoption
Bitcoin's price is affected by global events. But if Trump launches a trade war, is Bitcoin going up, down, or side-ways? That's the million dollar question.
- FOMO-driven rally
- Potential downtrend if $100,000 isn't broken
- Geopolitical uncertainty
- Regulatory headwinds
I may or may not hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned above. As always, conduct your own due diligence and speak with a trusted financial advisor before investing any capital.
This isn't financial advice, but here's my take:
- If you're already in Bitcoin, consider holding. The technicals are strong, and the potential upside is significant.
- If you're risk-averse, maybe take some profits off the table. Secure your gains and sleep soundly at night.
- If you're on the sidelines, do your research. Understand the risks, but don't dismiss the potential rewards. Bitcoin is not going away.
The "sell in May and go away" strategy might be sound advice for traditional stocks, but Bitcoin plays by its own rules. This May, the Trump wildcard could trump (pun intended) the seasonal trends. It's a calculated risk, but one that could pay off handsomely. Just remember to buckle up and prepare for the ride.
Consider this: Bitcoin's price is affected by global events. If Trump pursues a trade war, will Bitcoin go up, down, or sideways? That's the million dollar question.
- Up: If investors see Bitcoin as a safe haven from economic uncertainty.
- Down: If the overall market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly negative.
- Sideways: If the effects are mixed and cancel each other out.
Disclaimer: I may or may not hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned above. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
