$26 million. That’s all the data availability (DA) revenue Ethereum has snatched up since EIP-4844 landed in March. Let that sink in. Ethereum, the blockchain world’s supposed silver bullet and king of blockchains is failing. It’s leaving billions on the table in a space where it should be crushing the market. And still, the “Wen Moon?” crowd continues to chant. Meanwhile, they stay totally insulated that the rocket fuel is leaking at 10x the rate Vitalik can tweet about Zuzalu.
DA: Ethereum's Only Hope?
Let's be brutally honest: Ethereum is becoming a settlement layer, a digital notary public. Execution is quickly transitioning to L2s, and MEV? Fuhgeddaboudit. So the smart money are coming up with clever ways to hide their order flow, feeding in scraps for the public mempool vultures. Justin Drake is right: DA is the only sustainable revenue stream left. It's do or die time, and right now, Ethereum is looking suspiciously like it's choosing the latter.
Think about it. Ethereum has reigned supreme for years now. It’s the classic David versus Goliath scenario, as when the established tech giant, for example, IBM, met the nimble startup. IBM owned the space for mainframes, but lost out on the emergence of PCs. Are we seeing the opposite playbook play out with Ethereum and Celestia? The parallels are unsettling.
Celestia's Alluring, Cheaper Blockspace
Here's where the anxiety kicks in. And sure enough, that scrappy modular blockchain Celestia is eating Ethereum’s lunch. They're offering L2s dramatically cheaper DA, bigger block sizes (8MB now, aiming for 128MB!), and a roadmap that's making Ethereum's blob expansion plans look glacial.
Consider this: Why would an L2 choose Ethereum's DA, with its constrained supply and relatively high cost, when Celestia is practically giving it away? It does not make sense to choose to pay premium prices for dial-up internet. Fiber optic for only pennies on the dollar!
I'm not saying Ethereum is doomed. It still has that huge network effect, that huge developer community, and just that pile of capital. But network effects are fragile. Developer loyalty is not guaranteed. And capital can offset only so much.
The numbers don't lie. Ethereum is currently offering, through blobs, an effective 384 KB per slot (32 KB/s). Compare that to Celestia. It’s not simply about today, but tomorrow. Ethereum’s blob capacity is currently on a predictable upward curve. It will increase from 3 – 6 blobs in the Pectra hard fork, with an ambitious goal of 48-72 blobs during the Fusaka upgrade. "Distant" is the key word here. Celestia is moving now.
Accidental Computer: A Real Threat?
The notion that they could even hope to challenge Ethereum’s dominance on proof verification? That’s not only a threat, it’s an unfolding existential crisis. It’d be as if an auto manufacturer that was originally founded to sell tires eventually started producing and selling whole cars.
This isn’t only about technologies, this is about incentives. L2s are businesses. They’re going to continue to target the lowest cost and highest performing investments. If Celestia can provide both, Ethereum’s toast. We are talking about a competitive market. EigenDA, Avail and others are coming. Summary Ethereum has a limited window of opportunity before it is checkmated.
Look at Hyperliquid. That hasn’t stopped them from leading the perpetuals DEX volume and amid the uproar of the JELLY debacle. Why? Due to them offering extremely fast token list times and amazing user experience. That should be a wake-up call. Hitching your star to a great technical idea just isn’t enough any more—you need to be a competitor.
Ethereum’s leadership must take a break from congratulating themselves and pursue real competitive innovation as though their lives and fortunes depended on it. Because, frankly, it does.
The Ethereum community needs to demand faster DA expansion, explore alternative solutions, and get serious about competing in this new modular world. Forget “Wen Moon?” Start asking “How do we retain the moon?” Because at this rate, Celestia is looking very tempting.
