Alright, first things first about XRP and this apparently relentless assault on $3. Everyone's excited, I get it. Peep those shiny new headlines! Not surprisingly, the descending wedge has broken out and all the key moving averages are being crushed—in particular the 50 and 100-day EMAs! The Fibonacci extensions are yelling “$3!, and on-chain metrics are allegedly confirming the whole thing. But hold on a second. Are we all wearing rose-tinted glasses here? Are we really seeing the full picture?

Fibonacci Extensions Are Gospel Truth?

Let's be blunt: Fibonacci extensions are tools, not prophecies etched in stone. Simply having a line on a chart that trends toward $3 doesn’t make it so. To me technical analysis is not an exact science, but more of a self-fulfilling prophecy that just patiently waits to be broken. It works until it doesn't. And $3? That's a big number. A psychologically important level that’s sure to bring big-time selling pressure.

Consider this: the enthusiasm surrounding XRP often feels…cultish. And look, I’m all about the passion— but blind faith is a sure fire path to calamity. We've seen similar patterns before. Remember the Shiba Inu "fakeout"? Look how bullish everyone was when SHIB broke above the 200 EMA, going to the moon, and then bam, rug pulled. It reversed, shaking out the weak hands. And how do we know XRP won’t try something like this in the future?

This is the narrative that most people are running with – the same narrative that conveniently ignores the tremendous regulatory uncertainty that’s still clouding XRP in the US. The SEC lawsuit isn't over, folks. A ruling against Ripple could short-circuit this bullish momentum in an instant, regardless of how beautiful the charts appear. This is the Anxiety/Fear part that’s being softened.

On-Chain Data Tells The Whole Story?

Wallet activity and payment volume are increasing, of course. But who is driving that activity? But is it real, enduring investment or just a bunch of short-term speculators following the pump? And how much of that payment volume is associated with real utility versus phantom liquidity and noise from speculative trading. These are very serious questions that the XRP bulls always conveniently gloss over.

Let's draw an unexpected connection here. Think about how political narratives are shaped. What you end up with is a handful of hand-picked statistics, cherry-picked and gussied up to fit the narrative of a foregone conclusion. It's the same with crypto analysis. Confirmation bias in full effect. People will notice what they want to notice, and they will gravitate toward data that confirms their belief. Now, I’m not saying that they are incorrect. Ultimately, I don’t want to preach, I just want us to identify our blind spots.

The lack of significant resistance until $3? That's optimistic, to say the least. There are several key levels of resistance still in front of us. Psychological barriers combined with the profit-taking temptations of early investors will make that path fraught with obstacles. We need to be realistic.

Ignoring Bearish Indicators Is Wise?

Now everyone is looking at the breakout and the moving averages. What about the bearish divergences hiding in plain sight? Look, we’re getting lower highs on the RSI, while price is still putting in new highs. What about the volume? Is the trend really as strong and vital as proponents want us to believe, or is it beginning to fade?

The Ethereum recovery offers a useful comparison. ETH has staged an even more breathtaking rally, reclaiming several key levels of resistance along the way. ETH is exhibiting typical characteristics of a possible short-term reversal. It has printed a large red daily candle and registered a significant spike in selling volume. The RSI is overbought. And yet, people are still overwhelmingly bullish.

Now, look I’m not saying XRP will never go to $3. It's certainly possible. What I’m not saying is that the technical analysis that undergirds that target is utterly without error. There are risks, uncertainties, and potential pitfalls that are conveniently brushed aside by the XRP maximalists.

Investing in crypto is inherently risky. Remember, the lure of the quick buck can distract from the likely potential for the quick loss. Be critical, be careful, and above all, be educated. And as always, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

I am not a financial advisor. This is just my personal opinion. Conduct your own due diligence and research before making any investment related decision.

  • Am I being swayed by hype and emotion?
  • Am I considering all the potential risks?
  • Have I done my own due diligence?

Investing in crypto is inherently risky. Don't let the promise of quick riches blind you to the potential for losses. Be skeptical, be cautious, and most importantly, be informed. And remember, past performance is not indicative of future results.

(Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is just my personal opinion. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.)