Altcoin gamblers need to get ready for a rude awakening. Here are some signs that the long awaited altcoin season may be postponed. The Altcoin Season Index, which is currently sitting in the deep 20s, indicates that altcoins are massively underperforming against Bitcoin. This is well below the level of 75, which is the historically known level where a strong altcoin season begins.
Bitcoin, as always, tends to set the stage during these early boom periods, particularly after a bullish halving. This model continued to hold true in April of 2024, where Bitcoin again topped out.
Further contributing to the cautious sentiment is the massive altcoin exodus. The 1-Year Cumulative altcoin Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference (that’s all altcoins other than Bitcoin and Ethereum) is now at -$36 billion.
In the past, a positive 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for altcoins indicates a market top. At other times, it merely guides a local high. In December 2023, this metric went positive for the first time briefly. Nevertheless, the trend has more recently reversed, and it now hovers in very negative territory.
Alternative digital asset risk appetite outside of BTC/ETH still appears to be low judging by BTC’s high dominance at 64%.
While the general sentiment has been quite bearish for all altcoins, Ethereum has been outperforming on a relative basis. ETH/BTC ratio currently trending up, at 0.02405. Adding to this, Ethereum has been on a hot streak and has recently outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day stretch.
