The chances of an immediate Altcoin Season are dwindling. Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) continues to rise, despite a recent market pullback. Several analysts had anticipated a drop in BTC dominance as a signal for the start of an Altcoin Season, where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. Yet, the reverse has played out, leaving the investor community wondering when altcoins will ever mooooon.
As Bitcoin corrected by 5% down below $105,000, altcoins were hit by an even larger correction. Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano each dropped 5-10% or more. At the time of writing, BTC dominance has risen from 63.8% to 64.7%. This increase already makes having that highly promised Altcoin Season much less likely.
Technical Analysis and Market Predictions
Despite the drop in the housing market, many analysts are cautious but still optimistic. Merlijn The Trader provided a similar technical setup as 2021, raising the hopes for Altcoin Season even more. In this conversation, he explains the market dynamics of 2021 versus today’s trends in 2025. That’s why he thinks a new Altcoin Season could be just around the corner.
Merlijn The Trader noted that the 2021 Altcoin Season started with a double fakeout. Since then, altcoins made a tremendous run.
Every altcoin 10x’d after that. Same fakeout. Same structure. This isn’t a coincidence. It’s a setup. - Merlijn The Trader
Tim made it clear that whereas previous Altcoin Seasons were speculator-driven in the extreme, the 2025 rally will be all about utility.
This time, utility is the ticket in. - Merlijn The Trader
ALT/BTC Ratio and Long-Term Trends
According to Benjamin Cowen CEO and Founder of Into The Cryptoverse, this is a positive sign. He pointed to a falling ratio of ALT/BTC, from 0.34 in early May down to 0.32. Cowen is already projecting additional cuts to 0.25 in the medium term and beyond.
The ALT/BTC ratio has now reached 0.32, which was arguably the most obvious short-term target. Cowen’s short to medium term analysis points toward a Bitcoin dominated market for longer, pushing back and/or lessening the effect an Altcoin Season would have on market behavior.
Market Dynamics and Future Outlook
Analysts continue to say that a strong catalyst is missing for Altcoin Season. Bhushan Akolkar, executive director at crypto firm Cryptoknowmics, said altcoins mostly have short-lived runs. Fewer still ever are able to hold their position in the top five or ten rankings over several market cycles.
The 2025 Altcoin Season will see a new dynamic. This time, hopefully the emphasis will be on utility and not speculation. This change is indicative of how the market is maturing. This new landscape favors projects with real-world use cases and established user bases.
