Ethereum is obviously still in dangerous waters, encapsulated by large inflows to Ethereum funds and alarming technical signals. The downside risks for the cryptocurrency are strengthening amid persistently strong investment interest as the cryptocurrency continues to fail to reclaim important resistance areas.
Historically, Ethereum funds have seen a recent boom in inflows, logging their largest inflows since 2021. Through the first half of 2025, these inflows have added up to $2.43 billion. Overall, Ethereum manages $14.29 billion in assets.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Ethereum has recently printed the first “death cross” on its two-week chart. This is the first availability of this kind of signal since the 2022 price crash. Legend has it that every time this pattern has completed in the past, the result was a ~40% price drop. Ethereum’s hard time crossing above its 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This resistance has been a rather persistent, mid-term challenge for Ethereum since June of 2025.
Cut to today—the market setup looks eerily similar to that of 2022. The market is distinguished by a robust local top. This is followed by a prolonged, multi-month consolidation phase and subsequent long, gradual breakdown with a series of lower highs. After first closing under its 20-period EMA, Ethereum then closed under the 50-period EMA as well, setting a local bottom.
Persistent inability to reclaim these shifting moving averages increases the odds of additional drops. Watch for continued downside target candidates, $1,835 is one of them. This Fibonacci level from the 2021-2022 move looks to be the next major support. In mid-2022, a similar crossover paved the way for a 40% Ethereum price decline.
Transaction Volume and Network Utility
On the bright side, Ethereum’s overall network activity has recently hit a high. The network handled a record weekly high of 1.45 million successful transactions on Tuesday, its most daily transactions since January 2024.
This jump in transaction volume is a sign of higher utility demand, featuring the rise of decentralized applications or DApps. This factor strengthens Ethereum's network value. Ethereum is currently trading near $2,500.
Potential Upside Scenarios
Even with all of these bearish signals in place, there is hope that a bullish trend could still develop. Should the 20-period and 50-period EMAs successfully morph into support, we might witness a powerful rally. With this action, they will likely increase prices to the $3,500-$4,000 level. ETH price is again exposed to downside risks as it continues to trade below two crucial descending trendlines. The bullish trend fits perfectly with Ethereum’s Fibonacci targets.
