Okay, let's be real. The sigh of relief you could hear after Trump’s “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” declaration on Truth Social was thunderous. I get it. None of us can deny our desire for stability, particularly not in the unpredictable landscape that is crypto. And yes, the market was rightly ecstatic at this news. Bitcoin briefly kissing $105,000? Ethereum, XRP, Solana all popping? It’s equally tempting to believe that storm has passed.

Make no mistake, a band-aid is not a cure. This is not a complete fix, but rather a two-year breather, and the joy of this news is a treacherous siren song.

Geopolitical Tensions Still Simmering

Let's not have collective amnesia, shall we? Even before this ceasefire charade, our own U.S. forces were busy destroying Iranian nuclear sites with our bombings. Iran’s retaliation came quickly in the form of strikes on military bases used by U.S. forces in Qatar. People were worried. Very worried. And that concern played out in a crypto swoon.

So, ask yourself this: Has anything fundamentally changed? Did this ceasefire suddenly make the underlying grievances go away? Did it rebuild the bombed sites? No. The embers of conflict are still glowing. These geopolitical fault lines haven't disappeared. They’re just dead, but alive, and we’re just waiting for the next spark. And when that spark triggers the first real backlash with a market plunge to follow, watch out.

We’re not discussing a typical subcommittee markup—we’re discussing a region where a short tweet might cause a billion-dollar market swing. To believe that a Truth Social post will ensure posterity is, quite frankly, naive.

Ethereum's Gains Are Built on Sand

Next let’s take a closer look at Ethereum, my area of focus. With Ethereum shooting up 9% in the past 24 hours, bouncing back from a 10% drop, itself. I want to ask you this: Is it sustainable?

From my vantage point here in Paris, I’m watching European regulators with wary eyes. They’re getting their proverbial knives sharpened, waiting to pounce and carve up the DeFi space with aggressive new regulations. These remarkable changes are set to make the biggest difference on price for Ethereum—much more than what’s taking place in the Middle East.

It's not just regulation. You know, those network congestion problems we’ve been fighting against for years. They haven't gone away either. Ethereum’s recent rally is not all it’s cracked up to be, peeps. It’s a bit like constructing a sandcastle just beyond the reach of a rolling tide.

This Is A Fool's Rally, Not A Trend

This entire rally is built on a foundation of hope and wishful thinking. It’s a political over-correction to a headline, not an indication that the ground is shifting underneath them in anticipation of real change.

  • Bitcoin Liquidations: The largest share of liquidations at $161 million.
  • Ethereum Liquidations: Followed by Ethereum at $140 million.

Recall all those $491 million crypto positions liquidated over the weekend? That's a warning sign, people! It howls increased volatility and repricing of risk. And guess what? Those risks haven't vanished.

Don't get caught holding the bag. This ceasefire rally is a new fool’s rally, not the start of a real movement. The window of opportunity to cash in on this spike is short, and those who jump in without thinking stand to lose their shirts. This is not a get rich quick moment, but rather an opportunity to be prudent.

Think of it like this: you see a flash sale on a luxury item right before Black Friday. Are you getting in due to fear of missing out (FOMO)? Or are you waiting to see if there are better offers coming down the pipeline?

Just as with geopolitics in general, the crypto market is a very unpredictable place. One thing is certain: lasting peace and stability require more than a social media post. So, those of you throwing around green candle emojis—have a blast—but don’t put the farm on it. A perfect storm is brewing, and it’s probably much nearer than you expect.