In the equally volatile arena of cryptocurrency, savvy investors are always looking for credible signals to cut through the market’s noise. Miles O’Connor, a Dublin-based analyst specializing in altcoin economic design, is known for his acerbic, independent critiques. Developers don’t always have the best public relations, but he considers development activity a foundational indicator for judging the long-term potential of blockchain projects. He’s not bad at cutting through the froth. His heady mix of libertarian perspective, technocratic knowhow, and plainspoken prose makes him a delightful and dangerous challenger to orthodoxy. BlockOpulent.com is where news gets more than the headlines; it gets a full revolutionary remix.
This article looks at the correlation between development activity and price increases in Cardano (ADA) and Ethereum (ETH). It provides incredible information for thinkers and investors alike who are trying to identify best-in-class projects by dissecting successful development metrics. It will explore and contrast their development approaches and provide concrete guidance to help you evaluate GitHub activity and other development-related signals.
Signs of Recovery in RSI
Overview of RSI Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the technical analysis is an incredibly strength indicator. It’s an oscillator that gives the short-term rate of price changes to determine if a stock or asset is overbought or oversold. It is shown as an oscillator and technically has a value that ranges from 0-100. In technical analysis, a stock or other asset is overbought when an RSI goes above 70, possibly indicating the potential for a trend reversal or corrective pullback. An RSI value below 30 indicates that the asset is oversold. This indicates it could be seriously undervalued and poised for a big upcoming rally.
At time of writing Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.81, about half of its all-time high in December 2024. In May 2025, the ADA price rose to around 0.75 US dollars. This was on the back of a month of hovering at roughly 0.65 US dollars through April. Just to give you an idea of that, the price of ADA hit all-time high of 2.96 USD in September of 2021. The RSI is not a buy or sell signal on its own. It gives you powerful information when you combine it with technical indicators and fundamental analysis.
Implications for Price Movement
RSI oscillations like these indicate a good buying opportunity as the asset continues to bounce back from an oversold state. When the RSI rises above 30, this is considered a bullish signal, indicating an increase in buying pressure. This can sometimes be a harbinger of a larger, upward trend. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Though bullish signals are appearing, investors should be cautious and look for confirmation from other indicators or price action before acting on an investment decision. The last break above this key resistance level sparked a month-long rally. Similarly, a bullish candlestick pattern might provide additional confirmation.
An RSI moving downwards from overbought conditions indicates rising selling pressure and a potential price correction. Investors who are long ADA ought to consider selling their positions. They can seek to manage risks through measures such as stop-loss orders to protect their capital.
Accumulation Indicated by Exchange Outflows
Analysis of Recent Outflows
Exchange outflows are the net change of cryptocurrency moving from centralized exchanges, like Coinbase or Binance, to private wallets or cold storage. Some interpret this as a bullish indication. It is a sign that greater numbers of investors are removing their assets from the exchange and holding them long-term rather than trading them on the exchange. For instance, large exchange outflows reduce the supply of an asset available on exchanges. If supply can’t keep up, or if demand is constant or increasing, this causes a price increase.
On Sunday, Jan. 28, Cardano set a new milestone of over 840,000 transactions in a single day, with total transaction fees of 279,000 ADA. The record number of new daily addresses and new active users highlights a vibrant and excited interest in the Cardano platform. This increase in interest might accelerate positive developments in ADA prices. These expanding metrics are metrics of success in terms of both connectivity and quality of the network.
Impact on Market Sentiment
To the bullish, significant exchange outflows can further positive market sentiment. These featured investments generate an artificial sense of scarcity that prompts other investors to start hoarding the asset. More buying pressure leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy. Retrospectively, reflection dollar by dollar as the price rises, it stokes that bullish sentiment a step further.
First, it’s worth reminding ourselves that exchange outflows can happen for a number of reasons. Regulatory concerns and security breaches on exchanges are usually what propel these outflows. Thus, investors must do their homework and look at a variety of factors before jumping to a conclusion that all exchange outflows are a clear bullish indicator.
Challenges from Regulatory Uncertainty
Overview of Recent SEC Developments
One of the biggest challenges facing the cryptocurrency market is regulatory uncertainty. Unfavorable or unclear regulations can hinder new technology, discourage investor interest, and create market instability. In June 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) swooped in—at least temporarily—by declaring ADA an unregistered security. Immediately after this decision was announced, the value of its common stock plummeted. This new classification created worry around the legal standing of ADA and how this would affect its adoption and trading.
The SEC determines whether a cryptocurrency is a security using the Howey Test, considering several key factors. These involve questions such as whether the asset is sold as an investment contract, if there’s a common enterprise, and if investors expect profits from others’ work. The SEC's enforcement actions against cryptocurrency projects often involve allegations of unregistered securities offerings, fraud, or other violations of securities laws.
Potential Effects on Cardano's Future
Regulatory developments are likely to have a powerful effect – positive or negative – on the price direction of Cardano. The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies remains murky in most aspects. The issuance of future enforcement actions or changes in regulatory guidance would significantly impact the value and market for Cardano.
To navigate this regulatory uncertainty, Cardano and other cryptocurrency projects need to engage with regulators, comply with applicable laws and regulations, and advocate for clear and sensible regulatory frameworks. Investors must be aware of ongoing regulatory action and weigh how that might affect their investment strategy.
Selling Pressure from Foundation Holdings
Understanding Foundation Sales
The Cardano Foundation is the primary governance body of Cardano and has actively controlled a large stake of ADA, Cardano’s native cryptocurrency. This funding will help its operations, development initiatives and ecosystem growth. Once in a while, the foundation needs to sell some of its holdings to pay operating costs or invest in important initiatives through strategic partnerships. Additionally, big sales by the foundation can tsunami the market with selling pressure. This, in turn, can harm the value of ADA’s price.
This can be interpreted to mean that while Cardano’s core is being developed at an impressive pace, enthusiasm for the broader Cardano ecosystem might be flagging. If developers can move freely from one blockchain to the next, Ethereum and Cardano will have a difficult time maintaining large active core developer communities.
Market Reactions to Selling
The market's reaction to foundation sales depends on various factors, including the size of the sale, the transparency of the foundation's communication, and the overall market sentiment. Many times, large and unexpected sales can induce panic selling, driving more prices down even further. By comparison, smaller sales that have clear communication are often less disruptive to the market.
To mitigate the negative impact of foundation sales, foundations should communicate their intentions transparently, provide clear explanations for their sales, and implement strategies to minimize market disruption. They can implement sales phasing in a way that’s done over years or decades. Or, instead, they can use OTC trading desks to avoid flooding the market with larger sell orders.
Growing Institutional Interest in Cardano
Trends in Institutional Investments
Institutional interest has been growing consistently. This increase is being driven by its technological innovations and growing adoption in the DeFi industry, making for a bullish price prediction for Cardano. More specifically, institutions are excited about Cardano’s robust architecture. They point to its focus on security and scalability, as well as its ability to transform several different industries.
As a result, an ETF would make ADA hundreds of times more accessible to institutional investors. This new accessibility may grow total trading volume dramatically and improve confidence in the platform. Early market indications point to such approval being realistic by the end of 2025. The platform is home to numerous DeFi projects. Launched on Cardano, they’ve got Minswap and SundaeSwap, these decentralized exchanges, lending and borrowing protocols. This diversity further enhances Cardano’s appeal for developers and investors alike. With the creation of Project Catalyst, Cardano has set in motion a number of partnerships with governmental bodies.
Long-term Implications for ADA Price
Further institutional interest would provide a massive tailwind to ADA’s long-term price potential. Their deep pockets, expertise, and credibility additionally augment the market with yet more capital. In addition, their presence helps foster adoption, create liquidity and ultimately decrease volatility.
These technology advancements enhance Cardano’s position within the blockchain ecosystem. Importantly, these things would serve to increase the future price of ADA in a positive way. As larger financial institutions continue to invest in ADA, the price will increase over time. This trend will be a boon to institutional and retail investors alike.
High institutional participation increases the clarity of regulation and acceptance of crypto assets. This, in turn, leads to greater innovation and advanced industry growth, enabling the industry to continue pushing the envelope forward.
To gauge the potential of Cardano v Ethereum, it’s important to look at their development activity. This is not limited to checking price charts, this means diving into code repositories, developer communities, and upgrade roadmaps.
Additionally, Cardano often sets itself apart due to its emphasis on peer-reviewed research and formal methods. In fact, each and every upgrade and feature comes under strict academic review before implementation. This multi-layered approach seeks to deliver a highly secure, reliable, and long-term sustainable blockchain.
Ethereum, by contrast, races ahead on an iterative and rapid development cycle. Upgrades are made in phases and there is an ongoing loop of feedback and changes using real world usage. This flexibility means Ethereum is able to respond rapidly to market and technological developments.
Investors can evaluate the development activity of Cardano and Ethereum by monitoring various indicators:
- Pros: Enhanced security, reduced risk of bugs and vulnerabilities, long-term stability.
- Cons: Slower development pace, potential for delays, less flexibility.
There’s wisdom to be found for investors who know how to critically assess these development indicators. From this analysis, we find the promise of Cardano, Ethereum and other blockchain projects. Keep in mind that development activity is only part of the equation. Investors should take into account other factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions, before making any investment decisions.
Miles O’Connor's analysis underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price movements and focusing on the underlying development activity of blockchain projects. Why investors need to understand the development approaches of Cardano and Ethereum. By assessing these important development indicators, they can ensure that they are making fact-based decisions and increase their likelihood of success within the ever-changing world of cryptocurrency. Beyond the hype, the future of crypto is here—it's code, it's community, it's constant reinvention.
- Pros: Faster development pace, greater flexibility, quicker adoption of new features.
- Cons: Higher risk of bugs and vulnerabilities, potential for instability, greater need for ongoing maintenance.
Evaluating Development Indicators
Investors can evaluate the development activity of Cardano and Ethereum by monitoring various indicators:
- GitHub Activity: This includes the number of commits, pull requests, issues, and contributors to the project's code repositories. Increased activity suggests active development and a healthy developer community.
- Developer Community: The size and engagement of the developer community are crucial indicators of a project's long-term potential. A vibrant and active community can contribute to code development, bug fixes, and ecosystem growth.
- Upgrade Roadmaps: Both Cardano and Ethereum have detailed upgrade roadmaps outlining their plans for future development. Investors can assess the ambition and feasibility of these roadmaps to gauge the project's long-term vision.
- Ecosystem Growth: The growth of the ecosystem surrounding a blockchain project is another important indicator of its success. This includes the number of decentralized applications (dApps), DeFi protocols, and other projects being built on the platform.
By carefully evaluating these development indicators, investors can gain valuable insights into the potential of Cardano, Ethereum, and other blockchain projects. Remember, development activity is just one piece of the puzzle. Investors should also consider other factors, such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions, before making investment decisions.
Miles O’Connor's analysis underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price movements and focusing on the underlying development activity of blockchain projects. By understanding the development approaches of Cardano and Ethereum and evaluating key development indicators, investors can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of success in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency. The future of crypto isn't just about hype; it's about code, community, and continuous innovation.
