Benjamin Cowen, one of the most popular crypto analysts on the planet, is warning traders to be careful. He cautions that altcoins can continue to crash against Bitcoin (BTC). To give you an idea of his reach, Cowen has 1M+ followers on X. He argues that today’s US monetary policy will almost certainly exacerbate this decline.
Illume’s analysis of Cowen’s charts shows that altcoin pairs, when valued against Bitcoin, are likely to be preparing to retest their range lows. He posted some lessons learned on X and we’ve included them here with his permission. He urged traders to distinguish between ALT/BTC vs USD/BTC pairs, as they behave pretty differently.
"Does anyone understand the difference between ALT/BTC and ALT/USD or are people just going to keep pretending they are the same thing? This is the difference between ALT/USD and ALT/BTC pairs. ALTs keep bleeding to BTC but have gone up on their USD pairs. Something something Bitcoin Dominance." - Benjamin Cowen
In Cowen’s recent analysis of crypto trends, he urges a look at a key pattern in the performance of altcoin pairs vs BTC. He noted that for both of the previous summers, these pairs saw at least token rallies before fading in Q4. Cowen is predicting that kind of pattern could repeat itself this year.
"The last 2 summers ALT/BTC pairs found some brief relief before heading lower into Q4. The larger bounce by ALT/BTC pairs over the last few years did not occur until November." - Benjamin Cowen
Cowen thinks the economic environment right now is shock-proof. This resilience will likely push back expected timing for interest rate cuts and for cessation of QT (quantitative tightening). Instead, he thinks this tight monetary policy is set to drive altcoin/BTC pairs much lower. That trend, if sustained, might take them nearer to their range lows.
"With the economy holding strong, it delays rate cuts and likely delays the end to QT [quantitative tightening]. This suggests that monetary policy will remain restrictive, continuing to support the idea that altcoin/BTC pairs are likely still heading to the range lows." - Benjamin Cowen
In summary, Cowen’s insights are extremely valuable to any trader looking to walk through the minefield which is the cryptocurrency market. His analysis offers a great lens to help understand how altcoin values may change in relation to Bitcoin.
Cowen brings a cautionary message to would-be traders. …to think twice before making risky investments in the highly unpredictable cryptocurrency market.
